Oorlog Rusland 21 juni 2015 - groeiende Verzameling Ukraine historische links

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https://www.facebook.com/anatolij.gajkovs.kij/posts/pfbid035xFvqcU9yFY8AhDoKznUDhFxx9yKa9Y5nUhcDfhT44MuyqgMj4NpSpg3Hq19ZkYUl

An interesting detail that is almost overlooked in the wake of the strikes on Iran: the first rockets in the country flew almost synchronized with the launch of a new railway route https://www.specialeurasia.com from China to Iran. The first train from Xian arrived at the Iranian logistics hub Aprin

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/05/25/3320800/freight-route-gets-rolling-as-chinese-train-unloads-in-iran-s-dry-port
 on May 25, 2025. This route has been agreed on and under construction since 2021 - immediately after Iran and China signed a $400 billion strategic agreement under the One Belt, One Way initiative. The essence of the project is simple: industrial goods from China are now going directly to Iran by land, bypassing all areas of US influence, military bases and sanctions control. Iran is not just getting supplies - it is getting the role of a key transit hub connecting:
- to the south - the "North-South" corridor through Russia, the Caspian Sea and India;
- to the west - land exit to Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the Mediterranean;
- to the east - direct access to Chinese supply chains.

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/513289/Iran-s-strategic-transit-opportunity-amid-global-supply-Chain

In addition, the land route blurs the monopoly of maritime traffic, especially in conditions when the Strait of Hormuz and Suez are controlled by either American or pro-American structures. Iran gradually broke out of logistical isolation, becoming a link between China, Russia, India and the Middle East.
All of this is a geoeconomic threat that the US and allies understand very well. Therefore, it is not surprising that at the same time with the beginning of real integration of Iran into trans-Asian logistics, an attempt to systematically destroy Iran begins. The issue is not only in the nuclear program. The question is to prevent Iran from becoming a logistics hub of the new Eurasian architecture and not to gather enough strength.

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Have you heard the utter nonsense from the pizdenet of the Russian quasi-empire? First he spit out about "one people" and "all of Ukraine is ours", and then right away: "Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours". That is, not all of "one people" is ours, but only those who were able to be driven under the boot?!
What kind of "brotherly love" is this?! This is not even logic, this is schizophrenia in its purest form!

He still dares to say that the tragedy in Ukraine is "not the result of our work", but the consequences of those who "could not come to terms with it". Yeah, right! He didn't attack, he didn't start the war!
As if Ukraine had to come to terms with murders and the seizure of lands!
This is not a tragedy, this is a crime, and you, individual, are the main director of this bloody massacre!
And his "We have never questioned Ukraine's right to sovereignty" is just a slap in the face to everyone.
What did you do in 2022 if you didn't doubt it?!
You say one thing, and do another.
As usual.

The icing on the cake: "I was ready to meet with Zelensky, but Johnson talked me out of it."
Of course, someone is always to blame, but not him! Maybe no one wants to deal with a murderer and a liar?!
And this: "Russia is forced to create a security zone along its border with Ukraine" is the apotheosis of cynicism.
It's like a burglar who, after cleaning out an apartment, is "forced" to put a fence around it for "security." Sick bastard!

And his pearls of wisdom about the economy? "Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated." Well, yes, of course, the death of the economy, like his own, is constantly "exaggerated."
And the fact that our fellow countrymen are on the brink of poverty, and the budget is on the rocks - these are trifles!
"If you drink vodka, you need a snack," so Russia will export vodka to Africa, then meat and grain.
Seriously?!
Instead of developing his country, he proposes to get Africa drunk and fed in order to make a profit?
Businessman of the year, damn him!

The "fuss" around Domodedovo and privatization "for a ruble" is a pure excuse. For years he sat on the pipe, did nothing, and now he whines about "injustice". Double standards are his second name.

"Israel today is almost a Russian-speaking country... Moscow takes this into account." What?! What is he getting at?
That Israel is now "ours" too, like Crimea?

This idiot has completely lost his mind.
And finally: "Russia will create conditions for foreign investors so that they feel comfortable." Ahaha! Comfortable? In a country where you can "nationalize" anything at any time, and "enemies" are constantly "looking for ways to cause damage"? Who in their right mind would invest in this bullshit world?! Musk?)))

In general, this old moth continues to talk nonsense, trying to cover up his crimes and the desperate situation of the country.
But we know that "rumors of his death" are only a matter of time.
And the war in Ukraine is not a tragedy, but a murder for which he will answer.
Sooner or later.
https://vk.com/wall720919076_5304


THOUGHTS ON IRAN AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS
1. "Persians are only 50% of Iran's population, but minorities do not rebel because they consider Iran their state."
Refutation:
This is a simplified and idealized view. In practice:
• Azeris, Kurds, Baloch, Arabs and Baha'is are regularly subject to discrimination, especially in the areas of culture, language and religion.
• Kurds (about 10%) participated in armed uprisings in 1979 and the 1990s. Baloch in Sistan suffer from repression and poverty and have also rebelled.
• In 2022 (after the assassination of Mahsa Amini), it was the Kurdish and Baloch regions that became the epicenters of protests.
Conclusion: The loyalty of minorities in Iran is not unconditional. They are held back not by love for the state, but by fear of repression and the lack of effective organization. In the event of a real collapse of the center, separatism will break out.
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2. "Iran is a state of all citizens. Everyone can hold any position."
Refutation:
• In Iran, according to the constitution, the supreme leader can only be a Shiite Persian, in fact. Neither a Sunni nor a representative of a minority can occupy this post.
• The highest positions in the Revolutionary Guard, the Guardian Council and the judicial system are also dominated by Persians and Shiites.
• Sunnis and non-Shiites (including Baha'is) are almost completely excluded from the upper echelons of power.
Conclusion: Formally, the state is for everyone, but in reality it is discriminatory. There is a ladder for passionate people, but it is not equal in start and outcome for everyone.
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3. "In Israel, unlike Iran, the Arabs are not full citizens, so they would rebel after the blow."
Refutation:
• Arab citizens of Israel have the right to vote, are represented in the Knesset, hold positions as Supreme Court judges, doctors, professors, deputy ministers, etc.
• Yes, they face social and everyday discrimination, but no more than minorities in Iran.
• During the war, the overwhelming majority of Arab Israelis do not advocate the destruction of Israel, but strive for civil equality.
Conclusion: The Arabs in Israel do not rebel en masse precisely because they have at least some instruments of political, economic and cultural self-realization. They are not isolated from the system, unlike the Baha'is or Sunnis in Iran.
________________________________________
4. Why is there no uprising in Iran after the Israeli strike?
Factors:
• Repression and fear: decades of internal terror have taught people to be cautious.
• Lack of an alternative structure: there is no opposition center or rebel cells, especially among ethnic minorities.
• Temporary shock effect: if the war drags on, the likelihood of uprisings will increase.
• Nationalism: even opposition-minded Persians and Azeris often consolidate in times of external aggression.
________________________________________
Conclusion
Both Iran and Israel are complex, multi-ethnic states. Neither provides full civil equality, but:
• Iran is a centralized, ideocratic regime where loyalty is suppressed rather than nurtured.
• Israel is a democratic, albeit Jewish by self-determination, state where minorities have real, albeit limited, rights.
So your hypothesis is interesting, but it does not stand up to fact-checking. In both cases, the uprisings are not simply a reaction to citizenship status, but the result of many factors: fear, repression, internal identity, and available alternatives.
Addition: Azeris in Iran - a possible factor of internal destabilization
Who are the Iranian Azeris?
• They are the second largest ethnic group in Iran (estimated at between 15 and 25 million, or up to 30% of the population).
• They live in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and in major cities such as Tehran, Rasht, and Qom.
• They speak a Turkic language close to Azerbaijani in the Republic of Azerbaijan, but were raised in an Iranian cultural and Shiite religious environment.
• A significant part of the Iranian military and spiritual establishment are ethnic Azerbaijanis (for example, Ayatollah Khamenei is Azerbaijani on his father's side).
________________________________________
Why aren't they rebelling?
✅1. Integration into the elite
Azerbaijanis are actively represented in the government, army, Revolutionary Guard, and business. This is the main difference from the Kurds, Baloch, or Arabs.
Many see Iran as their power, especially the religious and traditionalist classes.
✅2. Shiite Identity
Unlike the Kurds (many of whom are Sunni) or the Baloch (Sunni Hanafis), the Azeris are Shiites and share the theocratic foundation of the regime.
✅3. Lack of an Independent Center
Unlike the Kurds, who have an Iraqi Kurdistan, the Iranian Azeris have no sovereign center outside Iran that could serve as a base for separatism.
The Republic of Azerbaijan does not pursue an openly separatist policy towards its southern brethren. Moreover, official Baku has traditionally been wary of interfering in order not to aggravate relations with Tehran.
________________________________________
But the potential for instability exists: when will it be activated?
🔥1. Iran's military defeat
If the regime in Tehran weakens (for example, if nuclear facilities are destroyed, key figures are killed, and the army is completely demoralized), a chain reaction could begin.
🔥2. Baku's intervention (direct or indirect)
If Azerbaijan (possibly with the tacit support of Turkey and Israel) opens humanitarian or political channels of communication with southern Azerbaijanis, this could trigger regional protests.
🔥3. Growing national consciousness
There are already cultural activists in Iranian Azerbaijani cities demanding recognition of the Turkic language in education, rights to autonomy, etc.
Previously, such demands were suppressed, but in the chaos they could develop into a mass movement.
🔥4. Anti-Persian sentiment
Although Azerbaijanis are integrated into the state, there is a latent hostility among the people towards Persian arrogance, cultural assimilation, and discrimination. In the context of national humiliation, such feelings could explode.
________________________________________
Conclusion: "The Quiet Giant" on the Verge of a Choice
Iran's Azerbaijanis are potentially the most dangerous minority for Tehran, precisely because they have long been its support.
• If they stop seeing Iran as "their home," the most destructive internal crisis will begin: a rebellion of "their own," former loyalists.
• Everything depends on the depth of the crisis, the behavior of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the ability of the Persian center to maintain legitimacy.
🔮Forecast: Southern Azerbaijan in a Protracted War
________________________________________
📍Stage 1: Growing Discontent (1–3 months of war)
Prerequisites:
• Damage to strategic facilities in Iran (nuclear centers, IRGC headquarters, oil infrastructure).
• Rising unemployment, inflation, food shortages.
• Unrest in Tehran, mass funerals of the dead, disorganization of the authorities.
Reaction in South Azerbaijan:
• Increased activity of national cultural activists in Tabriz, Ardabil, Zanjan.
• Slogans: "South Azerbaijan is not a colony", "Down with the Persian regime".
• Increased monitoring of the media from Baku and Ankara.
• First student protests at the universities of Tabriz and Urumiye.
________________________________________
📍Stage 2: Organization and first clashes (3–6 months)
Conditions of transition:
• Pinpoint strikes by Israel and possibly its allies continue.
• The struggle for control of the provinces begins on the part of the IRGC and army units.
What is happening in South Azerbaijan:
• Illegal self-defense groups appear, often led by religious or nationalist authorities.
• Police and the IRGC suppress protests, there are casualties.
• In response: urban riots, burning of portraits of the ayatollah, road blockades.
New agenda:
• Demands for autonomy along the lines of Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Appeals to Baku and Turkey: "We are your blood."
________________________________________
📍Stage 3: Partial control over territory (6–9 months)
If Tehran continues to weaken:
• The authorities effectively lose control over Tabriz, Ardabil, and border regions.
• The IRGC withdraws some of its forces to protect strategic facilities in central Iran.
De facto autonomy is formed:
• Local management committees.
• Self-organization of residents.
• Open coordination with the diaspora and media in Azerbaijan. The slogan "Guney Azerbayjan, Ozgur Olsun!"
appears – "Southern Azerbaijan, be free!" ________________________________________ Stage 4: Possible declaration of autonomy or independence (from 9 months) With complete military demoralization of the center: • A congress of local delegates is convened. • Autonomy (or even independence) is declared. • Steps are possible to switch to the Turkic language in schools, create a local gendarmerie. Reaction of the outside world: • Azerbaijan (Baku): diplomatic support, avoids military intervention. • Turkey: provides cultural, humanitarian and intelligence support. • The West: hesitates, but recognizes the right of peoples to self-determination. • China and Russia: condemn, support the territorial integrity of Iran. ________________________________________ Possible risks: • Civil war between the IRGC and the autonomists. • The participation of ethnic Kurds and Baloch could expand the conflict. • The possibility of the region turning into a new Syrian arc of instability, especially if external forces intervene. ________________________________________ Conclusion: "The Quiet Front" Could Become the Loudest" Southern Azerbaijan is a region that has long been Iran's stronghold, but in the event of a systemic collapse could become its Achilles heel. Israel's strategy of hitting the regime could indirectly activate the largest and potentially politically advanced ethnic group, which already has a cultural identity, a language, a dream of autonomy – and a willingness to act. Alexandr Neporent


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